Funding structures and resilience to shocks after a decade of regulatory reform

Kristin Forbes, Christian Friedrich and Dennis Reinhardt

Recent episodes of financial stress, including the ‘dash for cash’ at the onset of the Covid-19 (Covid) pandemic, pressure in the UK’s liability-driven investment funds in 2022, and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023, were stark reminders of the vulnerability of financial institutions to shocks that disrupt liquidity and access to funding. This post explores how the funding choices of banking systems and corporates affected their resilience during the early stages of Covid and whether subsequent policy actions were effective at mitigating financial stress. The results suggest that policy responses targeting specific structural vulnerabilities were successful at reducing financial stress.

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How house prices respond to interest rates depends on where they are in the country

Danny Walker

Many people expect the rise in interest rates over the past 18 months to lead house prices to fall. Average prices have already fallen by 1–2% in the UK and by more in the US. In this post I show that historically there have been large differences in how an interest rate shock affects prices in different areas of the country, even though interest rates are determined nationally. House prices respond more to interest rates in areas with more restrictive housing supply, like London and the South East of England. These are also the areas where price growth has been strongest in recent decades.

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Flash loans, flash attacks, and the future of DeFi

Aidan Saggers, Lukas Alemu and Irina Mnohoghitnei

Decentralised Finance (DeFi) may seem a tempting option for those seeking financial gain, autonomy, and self-governance… But how safe is a world in which ‘code is law’? Closer inspection reveals an ecosystem experiencing several hacks, attacks, and fraud. Estimates show at least US$6.5 billion has been stolen since DeFi’s inception, and one particular DeFi feature is often at the centre of this theft – flash loans. Unlimited, ungoverned, and uncollateralised, flash loans give hackers the toolkit to highly leverage their potential attacks. The only cost is the gas fees required to send the transaction. In this blog post we consider the world of flash loans and their criminal counterpart – flash attacks.

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Corporate insolvencies reaching record highs: a look under the hood

Jelle Barkema

How concerned should policymakers be as UK business insolvencies have soared to 60-year highs? This phenomenon has been extensively covered in the media; with media outlets attributing the record-breaking numbers to a ‘perfect storm’ of energy prices, supply-chain disruptions and the cost of living squeeze. Insolvencies are a popular measure of economic distress because they have implications for both the financial system and the real economy. For the financial system, an insolvency generally means creditors will incur losses. Insolvent firms will have to cease trading and lay off workers, which affects the real economy. In this blog post, I assess the evolution of corporate insolvencies over time, including the post-Covid surge to understand what these record numbers mean for the UK economy.

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The effects of subsidised flood insurance on real estate markets

Nicola Garbarino, Benjamin Guin and Jonathan Lee

5.2 million properties in England are at risk of flooding. To ensure the availability and affordability of flood insurance to households in flood-prone areas, the UK Government introduced an innovative reinsurance scheme, Flood Re, in April 2016. It provides insurers with an option to pass the flood-risk element of their policies on to the reinsurer at a lower fixed price according to property council tax band. In a recently published Staff Working Paper, we employ a granular data set of all property transactions and flood events in England. We estimate the effect of Flood Re on property values. We also explore if Flood Re effects are heterogeneous across different subpopulations in England.

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Location, location, location? How UK housing preferences shifted during the pandemic

Martina Fazio and Gary Harper

During recessions, and indeed pandemics, housing prices usually fall. Yet between March 2020 and December 2021 (‘the pandemic’), housing prices grew in the UK, reaching at the time their highest growth rate in a decade. During this pandemic, many more people could work from home, which potentially influenced their housing choices. In a recent Financial Stability paper, we analyse how changes in peoples’ preferences might have played into house price growth. We find that about half the growth in housing prices was linked to shifts in preferences. This was mostly due to an increased premium paid for houses over flats, with changes in location preferences only contributing marginally. But other interventions and macroeconomic factors also affected housing price growth.

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Animal spirits and environmental, social and governance asset prices: does market sentiment drive stock returns?

Gerardo Martinez

In 1936, John Maynard Keynes coined the famous term ‘Animal Spirits’ to illustrate how people take decisions based on urges, overlooking the benefits and drawbacks of their actions. To what extent are prices of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) assets driven by the sentiment of market participants, as opposed to economic fundamentals? To answer this question, I make use of Natural Language Processing (NLP) tools and an original corpus of tweets to capture market sentiment around climate change. Estimating a factor model, I find that sentiment is associated with immediate returns of climate change related stock indices. These results are stronger for days with the most extreme returns. Market sentiment might be particularly useful in explaining large movements in ESG asset prices.

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What does the rise in the inflation mean for financial stability?

Kristina Bluwstein, Sudipto Karmakar and David Aikman

Introduction

Inflation reached almost 9% in July 2022, its highest reading since the early 1990s. A large proportion of the working age population will never have experienced such price increases, or the prospect of higher interest rates to bring inflation back under control. In recent years, many commentators have been concerned about risks to financial stability from the prolonged period of low rates, including the possibility of financial institutions searching for yield by taking on riskier debt structures. But what about the opposite case? What financial stability risks do high inflation and increasing interest rates pose?

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‘There is all the difference in the world between paying and being paid’: margin calls and liquidity demand in volatile commodity markets

Gerardo Ferrara, Gerardo Martinez, Pelagia Neocleous, Pierre Ortlieb and Manesh Powar

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and subsequent sanctions led to unprecedented increases in key commodity prices. While prices briefly abated in late spring and early summer, these surged again over late July and August, with EU and UK gas prices reaching new peaks on 26 August. These moves created a sudden and significant demand for liquidity from market participants with derivatives positions. This post examines how non-financial firms (henceforth ‘commodity traders’) reacted to this liquidity pressure, and how their reactions impacted the functioning of commodity derivatives markets. Commodity derivative markets are important for the real economy and the recent events underscored the need to better understand the interdependencies between margin and counterparty risk management practices.

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How does remuneration regulation affect bankers’ pay?

Ieva Sakalauskaite and Qun Harris

Following the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–08, some regulators introduced rules on bankers’ bonuses with an aim to mitigate incentives to take excessive risks, and in turn promote financial stability. In a recent paper we use detailed data on remuneration of staff in six large UK banks to look at how two of those rules – the bonus cap and deferral – affected bankers’ pay. We find that the bonus cap did not reduce bankers’ total remuneration but rather shifted it from the variable to the fixed part of the package. And while requirements to defer bonus pay can be expected to affect bankers’ risk-taking incentives, we find some evidence that they increased their total compensation.

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