Bringing together stress testing and capital models – a Bayesian approach

Dan Georgescu & Manuel Sales.

Capital requirements for financial institutions are typically calculated using a statistical model and a risk measure such as VaR, whereas stress tests designed by regulators and risk managers are often based on subjective scenarios with no associated probability level. The stress test cannot therefore be easily linked to the capital measure. Taking insurance as an example, we show how to establish the link using intuitive tools which (i) respect the stress test designer’s intuition about causal direction, (ii) can be calibrated to pre-determined parameters such as correlations between risks, and (iii) can be easily communicated to and challenged by non-technical audiences.

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