Take a look at UK and US 10-year government bond yields over the past few decades and you’d struggle to say which was which. In the words of the FT last year, “The benchmark 10-year Gilt might as well be draped in the stars and stripes”. And even relatively short maturity UK and US bond yields are highly correlated. But what is behind this co-movement and does it matter?
Authors: Gareth Anderson and Matt Roberts-Sklar.
UK mortgage rates play an important role in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, but are they home-grown? UK swap rates are a key component in determining UK mortgage rates. And UK swap rates are highly correlated with those in the US. Putting these pieces together, we show that UK mortgage rates increase by around 50bp on average in response to a 100bp increase in US swaps. This highlights one important channel through which global financial spillovers affect small open economies such as the UK.