Estimating and interpreting term premia in UK government bond yields: global influences on a small open economy

Iryna Kaminska, Andrew Meldrum and Chris Young

Since March 2009, UK long term rates have moved around a lot – as shown in Figure 1 – despite Bank Rate being held fixed. To understand these movements you need to understand term premia.  In this blog, we suggest that much of the movement in term premia reflects global factors.

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