Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and Alessandro Rebucci
In some parts of the emerging world, housing markets have grown well ahead of income in recent years. Will a US monetary policy normalisation bring about a correction in house prices as the search for yield unwinds and capital flows back to the US? Looking at the past through the prism of a structural VAR, we think the answer is “yes it will”. Shocks to global liquidity have much larger effects on house prices in emerging markets than in advanced world economies. A tightening in global liquidity conditions also leads to a rapid capital account reversal, exchange rate depreciation and hence a sharp fall in consumption.
Tag Archives: Global liquidity
Will a Fed rate hike affect house prices in emerging markets?
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Filed under International Economics, Macroeconomics, Macroprudential Regulation, Monetary Policy
