Swing or amiss: are fund pricing rules good for financial stability?

Benjamin King and Jamie Semark

Open-ended funds (OEFs) offer daily redemptions to investors, often while holding illiquid assets that take longer to sell. There is evidence that this mismatch creates an incentive for investors to redeem ahead of others, which could lead to large redemptions from OEFs and asset price falls. Some research has suggested that ‘swing pricing’ can help to moderate these redemptions, but until now, no-one has considered the impact of its use on the wider economy. In a recent paper, we carry out a financial stability cost-benefit analysis of more widespread and consistent usage of swing pricing by OEFs, finding that enhanced swing pricing could reduce amplification of shocks to corporate bond prices, providing benefits to the financial system and economy.

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Trapped in a web of debt? Inefficiencies from corporate debt and the potential case for macroprudential intervention

Emily Clayton and Martina Fazio

Debt creates threads between the financial system and the real economy. These threads transmit shocks across a web of connections, meaning that financial shocks may pose risks to households and businesses, and real-economy shocks may jeopardise financial stability. These threads can also become entangled into knots – sources of inefficiency. Macroprudential regulators in the UK have already intervened partially to disentangle the inefficiency from consumption cuts by over-indebted households. In the next decade, policymakers could consider whether a similar intervention is needed to limit corporate debt. In this post, we map the threads that corporate debt creates, identifying areas where entanglement may have created inefficiencies, and considering the potential case for borrower-based tools to unravel them.

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Measuring capital at risk in the UK banking sector

Giovanni Covi, James Brookes and Charumathi Raja

How banks are exposed to the financial system and real-economy determines concentration risk and interconnectedness in the banking sector, and in turn, the severity of tail-events. We construct the Global Network data set, a comprehensive exposure-based data set of the UK banking sector, updated quarterly, covering roughly 90% of total assets. We use it to study the UK banking system’s microstructure and estimate the likelihood and severity of tail-events. We find that during the Covid-19 (Covid) pandemic, the likelihood and severity of tail-events in the UK banking sector increased. The probability of an extreme stress event with losses above £91 billion (roughly 19% of CET1 capital) increased from 1% before the pandemic to 4.1% in 2020 Q2, subsequently falling to 1.7% in 2021 Q4.

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Back to the Future IV: challenges for financial stability policy in the next decade

Alina Barnett, Sinem Hacioglu Hoke and Simon Lloyd

Since 2007, macroprudential policymakers have grappled with a broad set of vulnerabilities. While regulators cannot be sure what risks the next decade will feature, they can be sure that the set of issues will continuously evolve. In this post, we explore three timely challenges that financial stability policymakers are likely to face in the coming years, including risks associated with: non-bank financial intermediation, cryptoassets and decentralised finance (DeFi), and climate change. These challenges have been noted by many, and are already stimulating development of macroprudential frameworks. But while some of this development can build on well-grounded principles for financial stability policy, other aspects are likely to come up against three timeless challenges, requiring novel and innovative thinking to overcome.

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The Basel regulatory framework: evolution of its textual complexity

James Brookes, Matthew Everitt and Quynh-Anh Vo

The Basel III framework put in place in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis 2007–08 consists of a range of regulatory standards, each addressing a specific source of financial instability. Its implementation has however led to active discussion about whether the complexity of financial regulations has materially increased. This blog post presents insights from an analysis on the evolution of textual complexity of the Basel framework.

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Sizing UK banking sector’s exposures to climate policy relevant sectors

Giovanni Covi, James Brookes and Charumathi Raja

Climate transition will undoubtedly expose UK banks to new risks and opportunities. Hence, we quantify the UK banking sector’s share of total assets allocated towards climate policy relevant sectors (CPRS). Using The Global Network data set mapping the network of UK banks’ loan and security exposures, we find that the UK banking system’s direct CPRS exposures amount up to 6.1% of total assets, or 45.7% of non-financial corporate (NFC) exposures. When considering also indirect CPRS exposures towards other financial corporates, the share of total assets subject to CPRS classification increases up to 10%. While 83% of these assets are tied up in carbon-intensive sectors, 17% will likely benefit from climate transition plans. We do not measure exposures subject to climate-related physical risks.

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Cryptoassets, the metaverse and systemic risk

Owen Lock and Teresa Cascino

Cryptoassets could have important roles within the metaverse – a decentralised, immersive next generation of the internet. Cryptoassets enable verifiable ownership of digital items, and when built to common standards, can move interoperably between web applications – increasing the asset’s value proposition. They can also align the incentives of developers, content creators, users and investors on metaverse platforms, and are required to incentivise miners and validators to add metaverse-based transactions to the underlying blockchain. We argue that if an open and decentralised metaverse grows, existing risks from cryptoassets may scale to have systemic financial stability consequences. Widespread adoption of crypto in the metaverse, or any other setting would require compliance with robust consumer protection and financial stability regulatory frameworks.

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Who took out mortgage payment holidays during the pandemic?

Georgina Green

The take-up of mortgage payment holidays in the UK during the Covid-19 pandemic was extraordinary: according to UK Finance, holidays granted reached a peak of 1.9 million during the pandemic, or roughly one in six mortgages. But which households benefited from the scheme? In this post I use rich UK household survey data to conduct an in-depth analysis of the distribution of the debt-relief scheme at an individual level. I find that borrowers struggling to keep up with payments during Covid applied for a holiday, suggesting the scheme played an important role in preventing a sharp rise in defaults. There is also evidence that some households may have taken them as insurance against future shocks, possibly dampening precautionary spending cuts.

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CoCo bonds and the risk appetite of banks: sweet or sour relationship

Mahmoud Fatouh and Ioana Neamțu

Since 2009, contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds have become a popular instrument European banks use to partially meet their capital requirements. CoCo bonds have a loss-absorption mechanism (LAM). When LAM is triggered, the bonds convert to equity capital or have their principal written down, providing more loss-absorbing capacity while a bank is still a going concern. The existing literature argues these bonds could increase risk-taking if shareholders gain at the expense of CoCo holders when the trigger is hit. In our two papers, we assess this argument theoretically and empirically. We show that the risk-taking implications of CoCo bonds rely on the direction and the size of the wealth transfer between shareholders and CoCo holders when LAM is triggered.

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Measuring business dynamics in real time

Thibaut Duprey, Artur Kotlicki, Daniel Rigobon and Philip Schnattinger

Just as doctors monitor in real time the vital signs of their hospitalised patients to determine the best course of treatment, economists are turning towards a real-time tracking of economic conditions to inform policy decisions (for example, through proxy for GDP and inflation). In a recent paper, we introduce a new quasi-real time estimation of business opening and closure rates using data from Google Places – the dataset behind the Google Maps service. We find that the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions in Canada coincides with a wave of re-entry of temporarily closed businesses, suggesting that government support may have facilitated the survival of hibernating businesses.

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