A public-private partnership: central banks as a funding backstop

Matthieu Chavaz, David Elliott and Win Monroe

Large-scale provision of long-term funding to banks has become a central bank tool to support credit supply during downturns. However, scholars have worried that allowing banks to rely on public funding could create moral hazard and crowd out private funding. In a recent paper, we address these concerns by showing that central bank and private funding can be complements rather than substitutes. The mere availability of central bank funding improves private wholesale funding conditions, thus supporting lending without central bank funding being used. This ‘equilibrium’ effect makes central bank funding more powerful than previously thought. Finally, the fact that central bank funding comes with strings attached can help to explain why it is an imperfect substitute for private funding.

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GIV us some credit: estimating the macroeconomic effects of credit supply shocks

Sam Christie and Aniruddha Rajan

Sudden contractions in credit supply can trigger and amplify recessions – a reality made painfully clear by the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). However, quantifying these real economic effects is challenging. In this post, we demonstrate a novel way to do so using Granular Instrumental Variables (GIV), focusing on the UK mortgage market. The core idea is that we can exploit the market’s concentration to build up exogenous fluctuations in aggregate credit supply from idiosyncratic lender-specific shocks. Using our GIV, we find evidence that contractionary mortgage supply shocks can have quantitatively significant effects on the macroeconomy, causing persistent decreases in output, consumption, and investment, alongside increases in unemployment.

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