Unknown measures: assessing uncertainty around UK inflation using a new Inflation-at-Risk model

Nikoleta Anesti, Marco Garofalo, Simon Lloyd, Edward Manuel and Julian Reynolds

Understanding and quantifying risks to the economic outlook is essential for effective monetary policymaking. In this post, we describe an ‘Inflation-at-Risk’ model, which helps us assess the uncertainty and balance of risks around the outlook for UK inflation, and understand how this uncertainty relates to underlying economic conditions. Using this data-driven approach, we find that higher inflation expectations are particularly important for driving upside risks to inflation, while a widening in economic slack is important for downside risks. Our model highlights that rising tail-risks can become visible before a turning point, making the approach a useful addition to economists’ forecasting toolkit.

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Dissecting UK service inflation via a neural network Phillips curve

Marcus Buckmann, Galina Potjagailo and Philip Schnattinger

Understanding the origins of currently high inflation is a challenge, since the effects from a range of large shocks are layered on top of each other. The rise of UK service price inflation to up to 6.9% in April might potentially reflect external shocks propagating to a wider range of prices and into domestic price pressures. In this blog post we disentangle what might have contributed to the rise in service inflation in the UK using a neural network enhanced with some economic intuition. Our analysis suggests that much of the increase stems from spillovers from goods prices and input costs, a build-up of service inflation inertia and wage effects, and a pick-up in inflation expectations.

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Firm inflation perceptions and expectations: evidence from the Decision Maker Panel

Ivan Yotzov, Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Ozgen Ozturk and Gregory Thwaites

Since late 2021, annual CPI inflation in the UK increased sharply. Alongside this increase, there was also a significant rise in firm and household short-term inflation expectations. In this post, we use data from the Decision Maker Panel (DMP), a UK-wide monthly business survey, to study whether there is an effect of CPI data releases on firms’ current inflation perceptions and year-ahead inflation expectations over the past four years. We find that on average firms’ perceptions of current CPI inflation have been close to the eventual outturn. Furthermore, one-year ahead own-price expectations respond significantly to CPI outturns, with the effects being particularly strong since the start of 2022.

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Did supply constraints tilt the Phillips Curve?

Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Edward Hall, Marco Pinchetti and Julian Reynolds

The remarkable stability of US inflation dynamics in the pre-Covid era had led many to think that the Phillips Curve had flattened. However, the sharp rise in inflation that followed the Covid-19 pandemic ignited a debate on whether the Phillips Curve had steepened and, in particular, whether its slope depends on some particular macroeconomic conditions. Which are these conditions, though? In this post, we argue that one important candidate that could explain this kind of state-dependency in the slope of the Phillips Curve is global supply chain constraints. We propose a simple framework to account for this state-dependency, and conduct econometric analysis on US data which supports its implications – showing that inflation in the US is more responsive to slack when supply constraints are tighter.

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Funding structures and resilience to shocks after a decade of regulatory reform

Kristin Forbes, Christian Friedrich and Dennis Reinhardt

Recent episodes of financial stress, including the ‘dash for cash’ at the onset of the Covid-19 (Covid) pandemic, pressure in the UK’s liability-driven investment funds in 2022, and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023, were stark reminders of the vulnerability of financial institutions to shocks that disrupt liquidity and access to funding. This post explores how the funding choices of banking systems and corporates affected their resilience during the early stages of Covid and whether subsequent policy actions were effective at mitigating financial stress. The results suggest that policy responses targeting specific structural vulnerabilities were successful at reducing financial stress.

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How house prices respond to interest rates depends on where they are in the country

Danny Walker

Many people expect the rise in interest rates over the past 18 months to lead house prices to fall. Average prices have already fallen by 1–2% in the UK and by more in the US. In this post I show that historically there have been large differences in how an interest rate shock affects prices in different areas of the country, even though interest rates are determined nationally. House prices respond more to interest rates in areas with more restrictive housing supply, like London and the South East of England. These are also the areas where price growth has been strongest in recent decades.

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Does long-term unemployment affect inflation dynamics?

Vania Esady, Bradley Speigner and Boromeus Wanengkirtyo

The headline unemployment rate is one of the most widely used indicators of economic slack to measure the state of the business cycle. A large empirical literature on Phillips curve estimation has explored whether more general definitions of labour utilisation are more informative than this simple measure. In a new paper, we investigate whether the duration distribution of unemployment contains useful information for modelling inflation dynamics. More specifically, do short and long-term unemployment (by long-term unemployment we mean individuals who are unemployed for 27 weeks or longer) play separate roles in the Phillips curve?

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What can we learn about monetary policy transmission using international industry-panel data?

Sangyup Choi, Tim Willems and Seung Yong Yoo

How does monetary policy really affect the real economy? What kinds of firms or industries are more sensitive to changes in the stance of monetary policy, and through which exact channels? Despite advances in our understanding of the monetary transmission mechanism, existing studies have not reached a consensus regarding the exact mechanics of transmission. In a recently published Staff Working Paper, we aim to contribute to this understanding by analysing the impact of monetary policy on industry-level outcomes across a broad international industry-panel data set, exploiting the notion that different transmission channels are of varying degrees of importance to different industries.

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Flash loans, flash attacks, and the future of DeFi

Aidan Saggers, Lukas Alemu and Irina Mnohoghitnei

Decentralised Finance (DeFi) may seem a tempting option for those seeking financial gain, autonomy, and self-governance… But how safe is a world in which ‘code is law’? Closer inspection reveals an ecosystem experiencing several hacks, attacks, and fraud. Estimates show at least US$6.5 billion has been stolen since DeFi’s inception, and one particular DeFi feature is often at the centre of this theft – flash loans. Unlimited, ungoverned, and uncollateralised, flash loans give hackers the toolkit to highly leverage their potential attacks. The only cost is the gas fees required to send the transaction. In this blog post we consider the world of flash loans and their criminal counterpart – flash attacks.

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