How resilient are UK corporate bond issuers to refinancing risks?

Laura Achiro and Neha Bora

Central banks in most advanced economies have tightened monetary policy by raising interest rates. Tighter financing conditions may make it harder for some businesses to refinance their debt or could mean they face less favourable terms when they do. This blog explores the extent to which bond maturities could crystallise these refinancing risks. Overall, UK corporate bond issuers appear broadly resilient to higher financing costs, but risks are higher for riskier borrowers particularly if the macroeconomic outlook and funding conditions were to deteriorate.

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Cash stuffing versus girl maths: how do people budget in a digital world?

Zahra Damji and Eleanor Hammerton

The best purchases in life are free. How’s that possible, you ask? Well, pay with cash of course! The idea that anything bought with cash is free because the money is spent when you make the withdrawal, not when you make the purchase, is one example of the TikTok phenomenon #girlmath. This belief, which is not gender or age specific, contradicts headlines that suggest people are switching to cash to help them with budgeting. We draw on an online survey of UK adults conducted by the Bank of England in 2023 to explore how people budget in an increasingly digital world. We find that, rather than turning to cash, contactless is king when it comes to budgeting.

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Forecasting UK inflation in the presence of large global shocks

Dario Bonciani and Johannes Fischer

The UK economy has been hit by significant terms-of-trade shocks, most notably the rise in energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These shocks have created substantial and persistent inflationary pressure in many countries. Such upheavals bring increased uncertainty about the future, making macroeconomic forecasting more challenging. In this post, we assess the forecasting performance of a state of the art empirical model, of the type commonly employed in academic research and policy institutions. This model is not used to produce the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) forecast but has been used periodically within the Bank of England including as a cross-check to the main forecast. Specifically, we assess its performance in predicting UK inflation out of-sample at key dates around the start of the war in Ukraine. The model performs well in forecasting short-term inflation, but it struggles to fully capture inflation persistence over the longer term.

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Stressed or in distress? How best to measure corporate vulnerability

Alice Crundwell and William Bennett

Accurate measures of the number of firms at risk of failure are becoming increasingly important for policymakers, as corporate insolvencies are continuing to rise and interest rates are expected to remain higher than over much of the past decade. The share of vulnerable firms is often assessed by looking at debt-servicing ability via the interest coverage ratio (ICR) – companies’ earnings before tax and interest divided by their interest expense. But several other factors are also associated with a higher probability of firm failure. This post will explore the merits of looking at a combination of financial indicators of corporate distress to better measure the share of firms at risk of failure and the associated level of debt at risk.

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CPI-weighted wage growth

Josh Martin

The Monetary Policy Committee has recently looked at wage growth as an important indicator of inflation persistence. One way that wages matter for price inflation is as a cost for businesses, who may raise their prices in response to higher wages. For this channel, the wage measure needs to reflect the coverage and composition of the Consumer Prices Index (CPI). However, most wage measures do not. This blog explores a wage growth measure which is re-weighted to better match the CPI.

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Mortgage affordability for borrowers who re-fixed in 2023

Daniel Norris, Elio Cucullo and Vasilis Jacovides

When borrowers enter a fixed-rate mortgage, lenders test whether they could continue to afford their mortgage if interest rates were to increase by the time it comes to re-fix. This ‘stressing’ is designed to create additional resilience for borrowers and the financial system. Over the last two years, mortgage rates have increased by over four percentage points, raising the cost of repayments for those re-fixing. We look at UK mortgage data and compare the stress rates applied at origination to rates available to borrowers when re-fixing. We find that the vast majority of borrowers who came to the end of their fixed terms in 2023 faced new mortgage rates which were lower than those they had been ‘stressed’ at.

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Schrodinger’s market: what the quantum internet could mean for the financial system

Ed Hill

Once the stuff of science fiction, quantum technologies are advancing fast. Individual quantum computers are finding a range of applications, primarily driven by the immense speed-ups they offer over normal computers. And soon the nascent quantum internet should connect those isolated computers together. This blog post starts to think about what this new interconnected quantum world means for the financial system. What could the first ‘quantum markets’ look like? What algorithms and infrastructure might they leverage? And where might the differences from classical markets lie?

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Beyond the average: patterns in UK price data at the micro level

Lennart Brandt, Natalie Burr and Krisztian Gado

The Bank of England has a 2% annual inflation rate target in the ONS’ consumer prices index. But looking at its 700 item categories, we find that very few prices ever change by 2%. In fact, on a month-on-month basis, only about one fifth of prices change at all. Instead, we observe what economists call ‘sticky prices’: the price of an item will remain fixed for an extended amount of time and then adjust in one large step. We document the time-varying nature of stickiness by looking at the share of price changes and their distribution in the UK microdata. We find a visible discontinuity in price-setting in the first quarter of 2022, which has only partially unwound.

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How auction design can make a difference: the case of the Bank’s Indexed Long-Term Repo Facility

Julia Giese and Charlotte Grace

In response to the global financial crisis, the Bank of England (BoE) began using Product-Mix Auctions (PMA) to provide liquidity insurance to financial institutions. The PMA, designed by Paul Klemperer, allows the quantity of funds lent against different types of collateral to react flexibly to the economic environment and market stress. It maximises overall surplus, or ‘welfare’, assuming bidders bid their true values for loans. Mervyn King, the then BoE Governor, described the BoE’s use of PMAs as ‘a marvellous application of theoretical economics to a practical problem of vital importance‘. In this post, we describe a staff working paper that shows that the PMA generates welfare gains relative to simpler alternative auction designs, which cannot achieve such fine-tuned responses.

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