Very much anticipated: ECB QE had a big impact on asset prices, even before it was officially announced

Menno Middeldorp.

What did markets price in before the European Central Bank (ECB) started purchasing government bonds? This is a difficult question, but using the frequency of news articles related to ECB QE can offer an answer. Regression analysis using news flow suggests that substantial price moves in the bond, equity and foreign exchange markets in the euro area, UK and, in some cases, the US anticipated ECB QE.

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