Forbearance lending as a crisis management tool

Isabelle Roland, Yukiko Saito and Philip Schnattinger

The Bank of England Agenda for Research (BEAR) sets the key areas for new research at the Bank over the coming years. This post is an example of issues considered under the Prudential Architecture Theme which focuses on the evolving regulatory structures and fresh strategic issues for regulators and supervisors.


Interventions in corporate credit markets have featured prominently in the policy response to crisis episodes over the last two decades. Loan forbearance features prominently among those interventions by lenders and/or regulators. It is a practice whereby banks grant temporary relief to struggling borrowers, to avoid default. On balance, the literature is critical of loan forbearance in the corporate sector because of its potential to contribute to zombification โ€“ a situation where bank lending keeps unproductive firms alive, resulting in lower aggregate total factor productivity. Results from our new paper show that forbearance lending in combination with business restructuring plans can provide temporary relief for struggling firms, safeguarding output and employment, without contributing to the zombification of the corporate sector. Note that our research is focused on the impact of forbearance on the corporate sector; the impact of forbearance on lenders is a separate question outside the scope of our paper.

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Tracking the price of carbon: price substitution effects across energy markets

Dooho Shin and Rebecca Mari

The Bank of England Agenda for Research (BEAR) sets the key areas for new research at the Bank over the coming years. This post is an example of issues considered under the Financial System Theme which focuses on the shifting landscape and new risks confronting financial policymakers.


Carbon pricing has emerged as one of the main mitigation measures adopted around the world to fight climate change. In the UK and EU, increases in carbon prices in the Emissions Trading Schemes (ETS) work as an incentive to substitute away from emissions-intensive activities and sources of power. Such increases can be a result of direct government policies, but as we explain in this post, changes in carbon prices appear to be also endogenously linked to developments in energy markets. An understanding of the possible transmission channels underlying the relationship between the two is important to assess how climate-related risks are linked to broader macroeconomic developments and thus monetary and financial stability.

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Global financial centre and its regulators: whatโ€™s the strategy when everyone wants to be the top dog?

Carlos Caรฑรณn Salazar, John Thanassoulis and Misa Tanaka

Several global financial centres, including London, Hong Kong and Singapore, are overseen by financial regulators with an objective on competitiveness and growth. In a recent staff working paper, we develop a theoretical model to show that some competitive deregulation can arise when several regulators are focused on growth, though not a โ€˜race-to-the-bottomโ€™: regulators will not lower regulations to levels favoured by banks if the costs of financial instability are large. To maintain competitiveness and stability of the UK as a global financial centre, there is a need for a comprehensive strategy which takes into account both regulatory and non-regulatory measures. This may require coordination across multiple institutions.

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What has macropru ever done for you? Macropru announcements can lead to a substantial reduction in systemic risk

Kristina Bluwstein and Alba Patozi

Measuring financial stability is very difficult. Measuring the effectiveness of policies affecting financial stability even more so. Not only is the objective of financial stability an elusive concept, but policies targeting financial stability are often complex, technical, and very slowly implemented. In spite of this, the usage of macroprudential tools in both advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs) has more than tripled (Chart 1) over the last 30 years. Communications about these tools have also sharply increased from almost non-existent pre-GFC to hundreds of speeches per year (Chart 2). In a recent working paper, we try to estimate the effect of these macroprudential policy announcements on financial stability in the UK by constructing a novel series of unexpected announcements and measuring their effect on systemic risk in the financial sector.

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GIV us some credit: estimating the macroeconomic effects of credit supply shocks

Sam Christie and Aniruddha Rajan

Sudden contractions in credit supply can trigger and amplify recessions โ€“ a reality made painfully clear by the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). However, quantifying these real economic effects is challenging. In this post, we demonstrate a novel way to do so using Granular Instrumental Variables (GIV), focusing on the UK mortgage market. The core idea is that we can exploit the marketโ€™s concentration to build up exogenous fluctuations in aggregate credit supply from idiosyncratic lender-specific shocks. Using our GIV, we find evidence that contractionary mortgage supply shocks can have quantitatively significant effects on the macroeconomy, causing persistent decreases in output, consumption, and investment, alongside increases in unemployment.

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Why do government bond yields drift when news is on its way?

Danny Walker, Dong Lou, Gabor Pinter and Semih รœslรผ

Government bond yields tend to drift higher in the days before monetary policy or data news in the UK. Over the past two decades this tendency โ€“ which we label โ€˜pre-news driftโ€™ โ€“ has pushed up on yields by 2 percentage points in total over that period. The drift concentrates in pre-news periods that coincide with the issuance of UK government bonds, which is more common than it used to be. Our analysis shows that dealers and hedge funds are reluctant to buy bonds when news is on its way, which pushes up yields. Pre-news drift could affect the signal monetary policy makers draw from market rates and it could have implications for the optimal timing of bond issuance. There are further details in an associated working paper.

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Launch of the 2025โ€“28 Bank of England Agenda for Research

Misa Tanaka

Today the Bank published the 2025โ€“28 โ€˜Bank of England Agenda for Researchโ€™ setting out the key areas for new research over the coming years and a set of priority topics for 2025.


Misa Tanaka works in the Bankโ€™s Research Hub and is the Bankโ€™s Head of Research.

If you want to get in touch, please email us at bankunderground@bankofengland.co.uk or leave a comment below.

Comments will only appear once approved by a moderator, and are only published where a full name is supplied. Bank Underground is a blog for Bank of England staff to share views that challenge โ€“ or support โ€“ prevailing policy orthodoxies. The views expressed here are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of the Bank of England, or its policy committees.

Stable gilts and stable prices: assessing the Bank of Englandโ€™s response to the LDI crisis

Nicolรฒ Bandera and Jacob Stevens

How should the central bank conduct asset purchases to restore market functioning without causing higher inflation? The Bank of England was faced with this question during the 2022 gilt crisis, when it undertook gilt purchases on financial stability grounds while inflation was above 10%. These financial stability asset purchases could have counteracted the monetary policy stance by easing financial conditions at a time when monetary policy was tightening them. Did a trade-off between price and financial stability arise? In our Staff Working Paper, we find the asset purchases stabilised gilt markets without materially affecting the monetary policy stance. This was only possible because the intervention was temporary; highly persistent asset purchases would have created tension between price and financial stability.

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Zero-day options and financial market vulnerability

Bowen Xiao

Zero-day options have exploded in popularity in recent years, accounting for approximately half of S&P 500’s total options volume, a ten-fold increase from just 5% in 2016. Their flexibility, low premia and underlying leverage appeal to all market participants ranging from conservative investors hedging against intraday market volatility to aggressive traders speculating for quick profit generation. The rapid rise of zero-day options and the memory of a market stress episode known as ‘Volmageddon‘ raises concerns that zero-day options could lead to a similar event. There are differing views among participants on the perceived risks of zero-day options. This post aims to provide a balanced overview.

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